Hong Kong's population could reach a peak of 8.22 million in 2043 from 7.24 million last year, then decline to 7.81 million by 2064, according to Census & Statistics Department projections.
It forecasts a natural decrease (i.e. deaths less births) of 1.27 million and a net movement (i.e. inflow less outflow) of 1.84 million during the 50-year projection period.
The average annual growth rate is expected to be 0.2%.
With a significant increase in the number of deaths due to the ageing population, coupled with a decrease in the number of births, the population is expected to decrease at a rate of 0.2% per year from mid-2043 to mid-2064.
The number of usual residents is expected to rise at an average annual rate of 0.2% from 7.03 million in mid-2014 to 7.61 million in mid-2064, while the number of mobile residents will decrease from 216,000 to 202,300, an average annual rate of decline of 0.1%.
Commissioner for Census & Statistics Leslie Tang said there has been a declining trend in fertility over the past two decades. The total fertility rate is expected to fall from 1,234 live births per 1,000 women in 2014 to 1,182 in 2064.
Hong Kong also has a very low mortality rate and life expectancy is expected to increase to 87 years for men and to 92.5 years for women in 2064. The number of deaths is expected to increase from about 45,400 to about 97,600 per year.
There will be continuous net inflow over the entire projection period with one-way permit holders a major contributor. Mainland authorities have no plan to revise the current daily intake quota of 150, as it continues to enable family reunions.
Population ageing is expected to continue as the proportion of people aged 65 and over is forecast to rise markedly from 15% last year to 36% in 2064, while those aged under 15 are expected to decrease from 12% to 9%, Mr Tang said.
The number of males per 1,000 females is projected to fall from 935 to 783 in 2064. Among variations in the sex ratio by age group, those aged under 25 will be higher while the group 25 to 44 will be lower mainly due to the entry of permit holders, mainly Mainland wives of Hong Kong men.
The Transport & Housing Bureau will adopt the latest population projection in its long-term housing strategy, updating housing demand projection annually.
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