The WTO's Sixth Ministerial Conference gets underway at the Hong Kong Convention & Exhibition Centre on Tuesday, after more than a year of detailed preparations. For the delegates of the 148 member economies, it will not be a simple stock-taking exercise, but an intense 100-hour negotiation, Secretary for Commerce, Industry & Technology John Tsang says.

As Hong Kong's trade chief, he is chairman of this key meeting. Mr Tsang is keen to see a successful outcome - and to help local people better understand what will be going on behind the closed doors in the centre. 

Setting the stage: (from left) John Tsang meets with Guyanese Foreign Minister Clement Rohee, one of six facilitators. The ministerial chairman speaks with reporters in his office days ahead of the big event, to be staged at the Hong Kong Convention & Exhibition Centre.

While people are beginning to know more about the Sixth Ministerial Conference - or "MC6" - there are few who understand its significance. Even among the global media, there are less than 10 reporters, all stationed in Geneva, who are truly well-versed in the WTO.

In the week ahead of the big event, Mr Tsang met with journalists and business groups to explain how it would likely unfold, and express his aspirations. As MC6 chairman, he sees himself as "the honest broker bringing together all the conflicting and often contradictory interests and agendas of the member economies."

It is a difficult but necessary task, he says, because the WTO is a member-driven organisation and all decisions are taken by consensus. In WTO-speak, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.

"I believe we will get a useful outcome next week, but precisely what shape it will take I cannot say. I believe, however, that Hong Kong will not end in failure as did Cancun or Seattle. Another failure is unthinkable and would come pretty close to destroying the WTO's credibility for years to come," he told a recent joint Chambers of Commerce session.

"And the fallout from that would mean increasing bilateralism in world trade deals, the only result of which would be further imbalance between rich and poor. Frankly, that path can lead to instability on a global scale."

Hong Kong conference differs from previous ones

To avoid such an outcome, Mr Tsang has gone to great lengths to ensure this ministerial differs in key ways from previous ones. Crucially, he stressed, the draft Hong Kong  Declaration is the outcome of a bottom-up process - agreed by all members before it was presented to the WTO Secretary-General. The failed Cancun, Mexico, meeting had a chairmen's report drafted through a top-down process which did not get a members' consensus.

"The draft Hong Kong Declaration may not be perfect, but it has gained support from members," Mr Tsang said.

As MC6 host, he wants to maintain high transparency and ensure the meeting is inclusive for all delegates. To ensure transparency, informal sessions, heads of delegations' meetings and chairmen's consultative group meetings will be held regularly so that all member countries know what is going on.

At a General Council meeting on December 2, Mr Tsang said: "The strategy for the preparatory work is a bottom-up process with no surprises. That is exactly how I intend to run the Hong Kong meeting: bottom-up and no surprises. We want to have, indeed, we need to have, an open, transparent and inclusive process, with nothing new or novel, nothing untried, nothing untested or nothing unfamiliar.

"I fully understand that communication among delegations and groups of delegations is a key ingredient for an effective ministerial meeting. We will, therefore, be adhering to past practice in having two daily one hour slots, morning and afternoon, to facilitate this sort of coordination.

"I will also ask the coordinators and spokespersons of various groupings to assist me in disseminating information on the latest developments to their respective constituencies to ensure that everyone is up to date on the state of the discussion and that the process remains as transparent as possible."

There will also be regular informal heads-of-delegations meetings, at least once a day.

Facilitators will help build consensus

Mr Tsang also secured the services of six "courageous" colleagues, to act as facilitators at the meeting. They are:

* Pakistani Commerce Minister Humayun Akhtar Khan, who will deal with negotiations on non-agricultural market access, or NAMA;

* Kenyan Trade Minister Mukhisa Kituyi, who will deal with agriculture;

* Guyanese Foreign Minister Clement Rohee, who will deal with specific development-related issues;

* Korean Trade Minister Hyun Chong Kim; who will deal with services, rules and other issues, along with

* Norwegian Foreign Minister Jonas Store; and

* Chilean Foreign Minister Ignacio Walker .

"All facilitators will provide opportunities for every delegation to make its views known, and will keep transparency and inclusiveness close to their hearts," he said.

This time around, the feeling in the air is different than it was ahead of the Cancun meeting two years ago, he said.

'Atmosphere' more positive

"The pre-Cancun atmospherics, there was a lot of unhappy folks, a lot of people who felt they needed to make a statement to show how unhappy they are, that no round is better than a bad round. They didn't want to just be coerced into something they didn't want to get into.

"This time around I got a different feeling, that people are looking for some results, that people are eager to come together and make some agreements, the political will is there. The ultimate question is how much they are willing to pay for that agreement, and we'll see in the coming week."

He has outlined three key targets for the MC6:

* although the draft Hong Kong Declaration already offers a 'safety net', he hopes the MC6 will come up with more agreements;

* to draw up a clear roadmap for the post-Hong Kong period so that full 'modalities' - formulas or approaches for tariff reductions - can be sorted out as quickly as possible after MC6 to enable the negotiations to proceed towards closure by the end of the year; and

* to come up with a meaningful development package.

Agriculture remains key sticking point

The main sticking point has come in the area of agriculture, where many countries, both in the developed and developing world, are arguing over the levels of reduction in farm subsidies and tariff barriers in the rich countries such as the United States and the European Union.

Though the EU is still firm on its stance on agriculture talks, Mr Tsang said negotiators won't show their cards until the last minute. He expected the most critical moment in the 100-hour conference will be on Saturday, and he hopes a finalised Hong Kong Declaration will be issued on Sunday morning, enabling the meeting to come to a close that afternoon.

Progress in agriculture negotiations has been linked to other important agenda items, including services, industrial tariffs and a number of significant development matters

"If we fail collectively to resolve agriculture during this round, we will lose a once-in-a-generation opportunity to do some serious good for the developing world," he said.

Successful outcome could lift millions out of abject poverty

A successful Doha Development Round has the potential to bring 140 million people who live on less than US$2 a day out of their miserable existence. Sixty million of these wretchedly poor people live in sub-Sahara Africa. Agriculture is the only export of many of these poor countries.

"Do we really want to tell them that protecting a relatively small number of farmers in rich and prosperous countries is more important than giving them the means to trade their way to a better life for themselves and their children? That's not an answer I want to give. And it is the main reason why I have from the beginning placed such emphasis on the development aspects of the round," he said.

While he does not view international trade as the silver bullet that will fix all these problems overnight, there can be no improvement in their desperate plight without it.

Mr Tsang has lost count of the number of different trade ministers he has met over the last 12 to 18 months, but reckons it is probably close to 100. He has garnered more than 160,000 air miles flying from country to country, talking to ministers and government officials to gain a better understanding of their concerns.

Development package has five components

This experience enabled him to put forward five components of a potential development package at the recent meeting of APEC Trade Ministers in Busan, South Korea. They are:

* a commitment to tariff-free, quota-free market access for products of the Least Developed Countries;

* harvesting as many of the agreement-specific Special and Differential Treatment proposals for Least Developed Countries as is possible;

* agreement on a longer transition period for Least Developed Countries under the Trade-related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights (TRIPS) and Trade-related investment measures (TRIMs) agreements;

* commitment to an Aid for Trade-programme, which among other things should be sufficient to enable early implementation of the Trade Facilitation measures on which agreement is already very close; and

* securing a permanent solution to the TRIPS and Public Health issue, guaranteeing access to cheap drugs.

All of these items are up for discussion in Hong Kong, when ministers from the member economies sit down to thrash out solutions. They will need to do this in a way that will enable the WTO to drive forward so that we members can conclude the round by the end of 2006.

Critical deadline looms

The US President has a 'fast-track authority' on trade agreements that expires in early 2007, and nobody expects Congress to renew it. "So we must come up with a credible package by the end of next year to meet that deadline," Mr Tsang stressed.

The current global trend is having more bilateral trade agreements - between two countries - rather than multilateral ones that apply to all members. The conditions of bilateral trade agreements are usually more geo-political than trade-related, and having more of them will create a "spaghetti bowl" of a global economy people. Business people won't know which rules to follow.

Since the bilateral agreements are almost entirely unregulated, the weak are at the mercy of the strong, who seek to build commercial spheres of influence. The consequence of this is a rise in global tensions.

Mr Tsang noted the only bilateral trade agreement Hong Kong has engaged in is the Closer Economic Partnership Arrangement with the Mainland, known as CEPA.

A successful conclusion of the Doha Development Round would benefit Hong Kong enormously, he said. While Hong Kong has little interest in agriculture, unlike many of the Least Developed Countries that are participating in the MC6, it does have a keen interest in services.

"We estimate that local business stands to enjoy tariff savings of nearly $7.7 billion if the tariff on our top 10 domestic exports is removed. And as services now account for some 90% of Hong Kong's economy, the opportunities for growth resulting from lowered barriers in our overseas markets will be multiplied."

Peaceful protests welcome

Many people may not understand the MC6 process, but they do know there will be many protesters on hand who condemn globalisation. As a bastion of free speech, Hong Kong is inviting them to have their say - in a peaceful manner.

A record number of non-governmental organisations have been accredited for the MC6, with more than 2,000 representatives signed up. For the first time, they will be housed under one large roof  along with 6,000 accredited delegates and 3,000 accredited media representatives.

"This really is the big, inclusive WTO tent, the broad church so to speak," Mr Tsang said.

There are two designated areas for demonstrations outside of the conference venue, at the Wan Chai Cargo Handling area and the Wan Chai Sports Ground. "As host, we are committed to doing all we can to enable everyone, including those with dissenting voices, to be heard," he said. 

The Police are well equipped and trained to deal with those who have mayhem in mind, he added.

"We have never underestimated the task ahead of us. That is why we set up a dedicated team within the government more than a year ago to plan for every aspect of the conference - from logistics and security, to strengthening our links and liaison not only with the WTO Secretariat in Geneva but with a whole range of member economies as well. An important part of that process has been to learn what went wrong and also what went right with other major international events of this nature in recent years, and apply those lessons to Hong Kong," Mr Tsang said.

Logistically, everything that can be done to facilitate a successful meeting of ministers has been done. Now, it is up to the MC6 delegates to put their hearts and minds together to reach a consensus - for which they have a collective responsibility.