(To watch the full press conference with sign language interpretation, click here.)

Hong Kong’s economic recovery became more entrenched as gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 5.4% in the third quarter over a year earlier due to further revival of global economic activity and the stable local epidemic situation.

Government Economist Andrew Au made the statement when presenting the city’s latest economic figures at a press conference today.

For the first three quarters as a whole, real GDP grew by 7% over a year earlier. On a seasonally adjusted quarter-to-quarter comparison, it rose slightly by 0.1% in the third quarter.

Supported by the continued revival of major economies and vibrant regional trade flows, total exports of goods grew notably by 14.2% year-on-year in real terms in the third quarter.

Private consumption expenditure rose appreciably by 7.1% year-on-year in real terms as a result of the stable local epidemic situation, improved labour market conditions and the Consumption Voucher Scheme.

The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell further to 4.5% from the previous quarter’s 5.5%, visibly lower than the peak of 7.2% in the period from December 2020 to February 2021.

As business conditions improved and property transactions increased visibly over a year earlier, overall investment expenditure grew by 10.8% year-on-year in real terms.

Mr Au cautioned that external factors cast a shadow over Hong Kong’s economic growth.

“The pace of global economic recovery seems to have slowed somewhat in recent months due to the surge in COVID-19 Delta variant infections and the pandemic induced supply and transportation bottlenecks in many places. This may weigh on the performance of our export of goods going forward.”

Mr Au noted that business sentiment turned cautious recently amid the external uncertainties but added that the city’s economic growth may continue.

“The improving employment and income conditions, together with the Consumption Voucher Scheme, should remain supportive to the consumption-related activities in the near term.

“Balancing all the factors that (we) mentioned, we believe the Hong Kong’s economy should be able to attain a solid year-on-year growth in the fourth quarter.”

Considering the actual outturn in the first three quarters of the year, the real GDP growth forecast for 2021 as a whole is revised to 6.4%, close to the upper bound of the forecast range of 5.5%-6.5% as announced in mid-August.

The forecast rate of underlying inflation for 2021, on the other hand, is revised downwards to 0.7% from 1%.