Up to 7 typhoons forecast

March 21, 2019

Voiceover:
Hong Kong Observatory Director Shun Chi-ming presented an update of the department’s latest developments and its outlook for the weather in 2019. 

The observatory expects four to seven tropical cyclones to affect the city this year, adding that 2019 is on track to be one of the hottest years on record because of the effects of climate change.

Hong Kong Observatory Director Shun Chi-ming:
Under the effect of El Nino, normally an El Nino year will mean that globally, the temperatures will be towards the high side. So, therefore we expect that the chance of us getting to the top 10 warmest year will be quite likely, or even reaching the top five.  The sea surface temperature is higher over the eastern part of the Pacific. And so the chance of very strong tropical cyclones forming and developing over that part of the ocean will also be possible. As in the past, we expect that there may be a higher chance of super typhoons forming over the Pacific. But as the cyclones move westward, there is also the tendency for them to move further North. And so, that is another factor we need to consider - whether or not such typhoons will affect Hong Kong. On balance, we consider that the number of tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong or getting within 500 km of Hong Kong, is still in a normal range. But for the rainfall, we expect that the rainfall will be normal to above normal as we are already experiencing more rainfall this spring, due to the El Nino effect. 

Voiceover:
Reviewing the weather in 2018, Mr Shun said Hong Kong experienced its warmest winter since records began.

He noted there were 36 days when the very hot weather warning was issued and only three days when the temperature fell below 12 degrees Celsius.

Hong Kong Observatory Director Shun Chi-ming expected four to seven tropical cyclones will hit Hong Kong this year.

Presenting the weather outlook at a press conference today, Mr Shun said this year will likely be one of the hottest years on record due to climate change.

“Under the effect of El Niño, normally an El Niño year will mean that globally, the temperatures will be towards the high side. Therefore we expect that the chance of us getting to the top 10 warmest year will be quite likely, or even reaching the top five.”

He said the annual rainfall is expected to range from 2,100mm to 2,900mm.

“We consider that the number of tropical cyclones affecting Hong Kong or getting within 500km of Hong Kong is still in a normal range. But for the rainfall, we expect that the rainfall will be normal to above normal as we are already experiencing more rainfall this spring, due to the El Niño effect."

Reviewing last year’s weather, Mr Shun noted Hong Kong experienced its warmest winter since records began, with the mean temperature reaching 19.1 degrees Celsius.

There were only three days when the temperature fell below 12 degrees Celsius, and 36 days when the very hot weather warning was issued, he said, adding the continuous trend of climate change warrants public attention.

On weather information dissemination, Mr Shun said a new interactive webage Earth Weather was launched today, featuring forecast weather charts from computer models.

The observatory’s website was also enhanced, carrying real-time wind direction and wind speed information from the automatic weather stations at North Point, Central Piers and Lamma Island.

Mr Shun said the Greater Pearl River Delta Weather website will be upgraded to offer weather forecast and warning information covering longer periods with greater detail.