The number of Primary One students in local primary schools is expected to decrease by about 5% in the 2005-06 school year compared to the 2004-05 school year, Secretary for Education & Manpower Professor Arthur Li says.

Speaking in the Legislative Council today, Professor Li said the current supply and demand projections of primary school places are the best estimates made on the basis of the latest information available to the Administration.

He said the demand projections are compiled on the basis of the latest projections by district of the school-age (aged from six to 11) population.

It is difficult to make accurate projections of the demand for primary school places by district for each of the coming years, he added.

He said population projections are premised on assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration. Any significant gap between these assumptions and the actual situation may distort the projections.

Number of primary-school-aged arrivals fluctuates

In particular, the annual number of newly arrived children from the Mainland and their age distribution are also difficult to ascertain, he said, adding that projections can be only made on the basis of trends or average numbers over the past years.

In recent years, the number of new arrivals has fluctuated substantially. For instance, the number of new arrivals aged from six to 11 differs by more than 15,000 between 1998 (about 19,300) and 2004 (about 3,700).

This being the case, a discrepancy between the actual and projected demand is inevitable, he said.

At the district level, factors like demographic changes, parental choices, availability of public transportation networks and schools' popularity may also affect the actual demand, he said.

Bureau reviews school-building programme

Moreover, he said, sites suitable for school construction may not be available in districts with a supply shortfall. All these make planning district school places more difficult.

In the light of the latest population projections released by the Census & Statistics Department in mid-2004, which point to a more rapid decline in school-age population than the previous projections, the bureau is reviewing the School Building Programme, he said.