Seniors numbers rise:
Deputy Commissioner for Census & Statistics Leslie Tang (middle) announces an updated set of population projections covering the coming 30 years and said the population is expected to remain on an ageing trend.
Seniors numbers rise:
Deputy Commissioner for Census & Statistics Leslie Tang (middle) announces an updated set of population projections covering the coming 30 years and said the population is expected to remain on an ageing trend.
Population to hit 8.47m in 30 years
July 31, 2012
Hong Kong's population could reach 8.47 million in mid-2041, according to the latest Census & Statistics Department projections.
From mid-2011 to mid-2041, the overall population is expected to grow by 1.4 million. The resident population is projected to rise at an average annual rate of 0.6%, from 7.07 million to 8.47 million.
The average annual growth rate over the 10-year period from 2011-2021 is projected to be 0.8%. As the population ages, there will be a significant increase in the number of deaths, which will lower the average annual growth rate over the projection period's last 10 years to 0.4%.
The number of usual residents is projected to rise at an average annual rate of 0.6%, from 6.86 million in mid-2011 to 8.22 million in mid-2041, while the number of mobile residents will increase at a similar rate of 0.5% from 212,200 to 245,000.
Ageing trend continues
Deputy Commissioner for Census & Statistics Leslie Tang said the ageing trend is expected to continue. The proportion aged 65 and over is projected to rise from 13% in 2011 to 30% in 2041. At the same time, the proportion of the population under 15 will fall gradually from 12% to 9%.
Mr Tang said the ageing population could be analysed based on the dependency ratio, defined as the number of people aged "under 15" and "65 and over" per 1,000 people aged 15-64. The ratio is projected to rise continuously from 333 in 2011, to 511 in 2026, and 645 in 2041.
The ageing trend is also reflected in the population's increasing median age, from 41.7 in 2011, to 45.4 in 2021, and to 49.9 in 2041.
Females dominant in sex ratio
The number of males per 1,000 females is projected to fall noticeably, from 876 to 712. Among variations in the sex ratio by age group, the 25-44 group is expected to be affected by the presence of foreign domestic helpers comprising mostly younger females. Also relevant is the continued entry of One-way Permit Holders, many being local men's wives living in the Mainland.
Making reference to data which excludes foreign domestic helpers, the sex ratio of males to females falls from 948 to 786.
Starting from 2013, Mr Tang said babies born in Hong Kong to Mainland mothers whose fathers are not Hong Kong permanent residents will not be included in the updated set of population projections because of measures which have been or will be implemented. Public hospitals will not accept bookings for delivery in 2013 from non-local pregnant women, for example. The Department of Health will also stop issuing the "Confirmation Certificate on Delivery Booking" to non-local Mainland women whose husbands are not Hong Kong residents, and the Hong Kong Private Hospitals Association also indicated that consensus was reached to stop accepting delivery bookings from them.
Life expectancy continues to rise
Hong Kong has experienced a continuous fall in mortality during the 1991-2011 period, with a corresponding increase in life expectancy. Life expectancy for males at birth rose from 80.5 (provisional) in 2011 to 84.4 years in 2041, and for females from 86.7 to 90.8 years.
Compared with other economies, Hong Kong enjoys a low mortality rate. The number of deaths is projected to increase from about 42,700 a year currently to about 82,400 at the end of the projection period. The increase in the number of deaths is mainly attributable to the growing proportion of older persons in the population despite a longer life expectancy.
HK Population Projections 2012-2041
, detailing the projection results, is now available.
HK Life Tables 2006-2041
, describing the present and future mortality conditions of Hong Kong in the form of life tables, is also available. They can be download from the department’s
website.
